Bunnies, Trampolines, and the Billions We’re Betting on the Wrong Future

by Rebecca Thomas

Bunnies and kangaroos on a trampoline fooled millions — and Erica thinks she can too.

This is a blog in two halves.

The first is about hope — about what AI can offer our kids if we use it wisely. The second is about a government rolling out an NCEA “transformation” that feels more like a museum exhibit before it’s even built.

Sam Altman (head of the team that built ChatGPT-5) said the world will change very quickly, and a child born today will think about the way we wrote essays the way we think about hand-washing clothes — with a mix of empathy and disbelief that we had it so rough. Why write essays when they’re running their own AI-powered businesses in a completely different world?

Some educators can’t picture it. They see AI through the lens of their own learning journey and stop at the discomfort. But our job is not to protect our personal sense of “how learning should be.” It’s to prepare kids for their future, not our past.

I remember calling my son when ChatGPT5 first landed. “Mum,” he said, “I’m already using it.” That was the moment I realised — this wasn’t coming, it was here. And yet we still have politicians selling the idea that a new A–E grading system is the answer. Stone-age thinking polished with a 21st-century shine. Foolishly, like a modern day Emperors New Clothes, they still believe spin will work on people who now have more raw computing power on their kitchen counter than NASA had when it sent rockets to the moon.

Part One: Our Kids’ Future — and the Bunnies on the Trampoline

Sam Altman described the strange, slippery future our teenagers will navigate: from finding out that bunnies and kangaroos jumping on a trampoline isn’t real, to asking how they’ll distinguish between truth and facts in a world where media has always been “a little bit real.”

The bunnies-and-trampoline clip fooled millions when it first did the rounds — a harmless hoax, but proof of how quickly the line between real and fake can blur. In 2030, that won’t just be an internet joke; it will be a daily test of judgment.

Altman’s picture of the future is clear:

• 2030: Teenagers on the cusp of adulthood, adapting faster than the systems around them.

• 2035: High school graduates stepping into a world where they may never go to college at all — because there are faster, more direct ways to build a career.

• A 22-year-old graduating today is lucky — this is the best time in history to start something new. One person, one good idea, and the right AI tools can bring a million-dollar product to market.

• The demand for AI is already higher than supply. The only limiting factor is energy, not imagination.

  
  

Erica Stanford has pointed out that New Zealand is in a prime position to lead the world in AI adoption and innovation — if we equip our young people now. We could be ahead of the game, but that means preparing them for the reality they’ll inherit, not the comfort zone of a political press release.

It’s December 2030. Seventeen-year-old Maia wakes at 9:30 a.m. No school bell. Her AI tutor, tracking her since Year 5, has built her day: a morning Zoom with a friend in Singapore to refine a biodegradable material they’re testing in their school’s innovation lab.

Her younger brother, Tama, is already earning money — selling AI-generated music tracks to fans around the world. He doesn’t memorise chemical equations; he uses AI to model them, then applies them to real problems.

Neither is heading to “university” in the old sense. Maia’s got a remote apprenticeship with a robotics start-up in Canada. Tama’s in a global creative co-op, learning live from industry leaders.

Their assessments? Instant, AI-marked, project-focused. Employers care about their portfolios and peer endorsements, not letter grades. And while they’re doing all this, industries they’ve never heard of yet are being born, scaled, and reshaped within months.

Part Two: The NCEA Plan — Betting on the Wrong Horse

The NCEA overhaul is set to roll out between 2026 and 2030. In theory, it’s a major update to assessment: new curriculum from 2026, with NCEA Levels 2 and 3 arriving as late as 2030. That means today’s Year 8 students will spend most of their secondary schooling caught between two frameworks.

In reality, this is billions spent designing an assessment system for a future we know will be unrecognisable by the time it lands. By 2030, the tools in our children’s pockets will make today’s “innovations” look quaint. Timelines that stretch for years in political planning shrink to months in technological reality.

Instead, we could invest in things that matter now, like:

• AI literacy from Year 3 (UNESCO’s already telling the world to start early — why aren’t we?)

  
  

• School-based innovation labs (dedicated class time each week where students learn how AI works, practise safe and ethical use, experiment with creative projects, and learn to spot misinformation — modelled on UNESCO’s global AI competency frameworks)

  
  

• Apprenticeships with local industry (partnerships between schools and local businesses, iwi enterprises, tech start-ups, and trades. Students spend part of their week working on real projects — whether coding an app for a local marae, helping a construction firm test sustainable materials, or assisting a design studio with AI-powered prototypes. These experiences are formally integrated into their NCEA credits and mentored by both teachers and industry professionals, giving students a head start in jobs that exist now and the ones that will emerge in the next decade)

  
  

• Student-led micro-enterprise grants (small seed funds that give students the chance to launch real ventures while still at school — whether it’s a sustainable fashion brand, a youth mental health app, a local food co-op, or an AI-powered tutoring service. Students pitch to panels of community leaders and local investors, learning business skills, teamwork, and resilience through hands-on experience)

  
  

• Teacher AI upskilling and sabbaticals (a funded programme to give teachers dedicated time to master AI tools, explore new pedagogy, and connect with industry. Sabbaticals allow educators to return with fresh insights, ready to integrate cutting-edge skills into their classrooms — ensuring they can lead, not just follow, the AI revolution)

  
  

• Mental health infrastructure in every school (a permanent network of counsellors, social workers, and peer-support programmes embedded in schools. Equipped with both in-person and AI-assisted wellbeing tools, this ensures students can thrive emotionally as well as academically, even in a high-change, high-pressure world)

  
  

Now that to me sounds like a good investment and an education that is world class, accessible to all and what our kids and teachers need.

Instead, we’re watching politicians cling to the illusion of control, peddling spin to communities who already have AI at their fingertips — and know how to use it to see straight through them.

Don't waste our billions of dollars on dud

2030 is not just a date on a policy document. It’s a reality coming at speed. And if we don’t align our investments with it, we’ll hand our kids an assessment relic for a past they never lived in.

Because when that truth finally lands — just like the day millions realised the bunnies and kangaroos weren’t real — it will be too late.